tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62046486646867339032012-02-17T11:56:16.196+09:00Dedicated to the restoration of balance through logicJohn Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.comBlogger1071100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-4773907582243015142008-11-05T06:30:00.010+09:002008-11-05T07:08:02.180+09:00

The final polling numbers are in and Barack Obama is on track to win the US Presidential election today. My final popular vote percentage shares are unchanged from earlier in the day:And my final electoral vote figures are unchanged as well:Here is the final electoral map showing my forecast for each state:Below is a state-by-state presidential election race forecast of the popular and electoral

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-4818491213735155922008-11-04T21:32:00.005+09:002008-11-04T21:55:13.422+09:00

The polls in the US will open (in the Eastern time zone) within an hour or so. Although there are a number of final polling results that will be released in the next few hours, I would like to offer my initial presidential election forecast. I will be modifying this initial forecast as the final polling numbers come in; however, I do not expect a substantial change in the figures I am giving

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-72033896834615417132008-11-04T07:01:00.007+09:002008-11-04T10:07:23.810+09:00

With only 24 hours to go, today's polls offer a curiously mixed picture of where the election is moving. The national tracking polls are telling us that Barack Obama is putting more distance between he and John McCain, suggesting that Obama may win going way. The state polling is telling a completely different story, a story of tightening, competitive, exciting races in Ohio, Missouri, North

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-10713099970847119642008-11-03T12:00:00.011+09:002008-11-03T20:05:09.947+09:00

The winds seem to have shifted back towards John McCain over the past 24 hours but at this point they are little more than a gentle breeze that will still leave he and his crew watching Barack Obama's boat sail across the finish line first next Tuesday:Of course, we are likely to see more movement over the next 48 hours than we have seen over any equal period during the campaign. If it is towards

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-24019482896478007362008-11-02T15:25:00.004+09:002008-11-02T15:37:43.335+09:00

Barack Obama is coasting towards the finish line next Tuesday. The Saturday polls suggest a fraction of popular vote movement in his direction:The Electoral College breakdown remains stuck at Obama 322-McCain 216:The national electoral remains unchanged from the previous day:The swing states showed a very slight movement towards Obama over the past 24 hours:Curiously, there was a very slight,

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-31472700134978308062008-11-01T09:33:00.008+09:002008-11-01T10:18:53.977+09:00

Barack Obama has taken back the momentum in the presidential election and now looks on the verge of winning the presidency next Tuesday. According to my model, Obama's lead jumped by 0.8 percentage points during the last 24 hours and now stands at 6.0 percentage points:There has been no change once again in the Electoral College vote breakdown:However, there have been changes in the current

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-38112022891962026262008-10-30T18:37:00.016+09:002008-11-01T10:55:59.687+09:00

Not only are the credit markets frozen, the presidential election markets have frozen up as well. The latest updated polls show no change in the national popular vote:And neither in the Electoral College vote:And not even in the current national electoral map:Forget about any significant change in the swing states compared with yesterday:At least there was a tiny bit of movement in the Bellwether

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-19246195986875284292008-10-30T07:05:00.011+09:002008-10-30T18:24:52.925+09:00

[Note: Text was added to the original graphs and tables.]John McCain's modest recent momentum continued over the past 24 hours as he reduced Barack Obama's lead in the national popular vote by 0.4 percentage points:However, the electoral vote distribution remained unchanged with Obama continuing to hold a solid lead:Although there was no change in the Electoral College vote, the national

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-28324369281037930992008-10-29T08:27:00.006+09:002008-10-29T17:50:17.474+09:00

[Edit: The written material here was added later in the day]John McCain has trimmed another 0.2 percentage points off of Barack Obama's popular vote lead, which now stands at 5.6 percentage points according to my model:There is no change in the electoral vote breakdown compared with the previous day:The current electoral map remains unchanged from the previous day:Among the swing states, McCain

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-43941742674475715052008-10-27T23:07:00.010+09:002008-10-28T06:22:59.988+09:00

The race has taken a turn for the tightening one week before Election Day. Polling over the past 24 hours suggests that Barack Obama's popular vote lead over John McCain has shrunk by 0.6 percentage points:Obama's lead in the Electoral College remains solid and unchanged from the previous day:However, the national electoral map shows more change over the past 24 hours than we have seen for some

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-90734660474841160932008-10-27T17:47:00.014+09:002008-10-27T19:08:28.295+09:00

Although the overall vote shares was unchanged since yesterday:Florida's flipping back into the John McCain column means that McCain is back over the 200 electoral vote total:The revised current electoral map is:Among the swing states, McCain saw a very slight improvement in Indiana in addition to his retaking the lead in Florida. Barack Obama's lead in Nevada was unchanged:However, Obama's leads

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-21768917954672738432008-10-26T09:26:00.011+09:002008-10-26T22:40:06.862+09:00

It was a light polling day made even lighter from my perspective since the number of polls I am using in the model has been dramatically reduced from before. There's a bit more movement towards Barack Obama over the past 24 hours:This movement is enough to put Florida (back) in the Democratic column. As a result, Obama has stretched his lead over John McCain in the Electoral College to 349-189:

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-70849238987119105822008-10-25T09:43:00.015+09:002008-11-01T10:23:51.574+09:00

It indeed appears that the gaggle of polls sucking up internet bandwidth are (as a whole) somewhat biased towards Barack Obama. Eliminating the gaggling horde from the model and tuning the model just a bit to better blend the remaining national and state level polls, Obama's national popular vote lead over John McCain dropped by about 1.5 percentage points. Unless the professional pollsters are

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-10835432094491080332008-10-24T08:09:00.003+09:002008-10-24T10:42:10.627+09:00

The results from a number of state polls from the industrial mid-west and Pennsylvania conducted by the Big Ten Battleground Poll and released over the past 24 hours were incredibly favorable for Barack Obama. Their polling gave Obama a 22 percentage point lead in Michigan, a 19 point lead in Minnesota, a 12 point lead in Ohio and a really eye-opening 10 point lead in Indiana. As I will show

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-80856269232995838002008-10-22T18:46:00.021+09:002008-10-23T06:35:22.802+09:00

Another day, another bunch of polls. For some reason, today's polls, taken as a whole, contain more noise than usual. As the volume of polling increases and the number of organizations taking polls expands as election day nears, the amount of noise contained in the polls overall should increase.Barack Obama has gone up another tick in the overall popular vote over the past 24 hours:But there has

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-78474585152403423702008-10-21T15:26:00.012+09:002008-10-22T10:39:32.399+09:00

Another slew of national and state polls released over the past 24 hours suggested that Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama may be having some impact on voters: My model shows that Obama's lead over John McCain has jumped by 1.0 percentage points since yesterday:There has however been no change in the Electoral College vote breakdown:There has also been no change in the current national

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-39378395880350376752008-10-20T19:01:00.023+09:002008-10-21T07:21:28.054+09:00

The polls are beginning to show and ever-so-slightening tighting in the US presidential race between John McCain and Barack Obama. McCain has gained 0.2 percentage points on Obama in the national popular vote based on national and state polls released over the past 24 hours and run through my trusty model:However, there is no change in the electoral vote breakdown and no change in the current

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-42985084850575538542008-10-20T06:32:00.007+09:002008-10-20T07:30:41.579+09:00

Another day of polls, another day of little or no movement in the overall numbers:The current national electoral map remains unchanged as well:There is some movement underneath this apparent calm though. Ohio, Colorado and Virginia are slowly edging back towards swing state status and only a tick or two of movement towards John McCain at the national level will cause those three states to turn

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-61042490975968020832008-10-19T08:58:00.013+09:002008-10-20T07:07:23.490+09:00

The US presidential race appears to have changed little in the past 24 hours according to my model with the popular vote share, the electoral vote totals and the current national electoral map unchanged:The situation is little changed as well among the current swing state club members, although John McCain has made some modest gains on Barack Obama in Florida:Obama has actually added a touch to

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-37362863408983497252008-10-18T05:54:00.005+09:002008-10-18T06:18:51.311+09:00

Two polls released today suggest a tightening race in Florida. A Survey USA poll of 553 likely voters gives John McCain a 49% to 47% lead over Barack Obama in the state while a Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters gives Obama a 49%-45% lead over McCain in Florida. Grinding the results of these polls (as well as the updated daily national tracking polls) into my model results in a 0.8

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-49782343581423057012008-10-17T08:42:00.007+09:002008-10-17T10:21:21.254+09:00

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has narrowed by 0.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours:Obama's lead is still a formidable 6.2 percentage points. The trimming of his popular vote lead has not affected his Electoral College vote lead:Although Obama's lead in Florida has fallen somewhat, there has been little change in the other two swing states Nevada and North Carolina:More importantly,

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-11789972551454492392008-10-16T07:14:00.018+09:002008-10-17T08:29:54.005+09:00

With today's post we officially welcome North Carolina to the Swing State Club. John McCain is still ahead in the state, but his lead is shrinking day by day:Note how West Virginia has disappeared from the list. A new poll in the state released today suggests that her earlier inclusion may have been a bit premature. She's been ordered to spruce up a bit and wait her turn before we let her back in

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-87349263852986591322008-10-15T07:18:00.006+09:002008-10-16T15:38:39.394+09:00

The steady trickle towards Barack Obama is turning into a river and the river is showing signs of flooding. Polling released over the last 24 hours suggests that Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has widened to 6.4 percentage points:Worse yet for McCain, Florida has taken to wearing light blue again while Virginia and Colorado have just pulled their dark blue outfits out of the closet and have

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-46952198881240937272008-10-14T19:17:00.004+09:002008-10-14T19:31:08.562+09:00

Shortly after I published my previous blog, a cascade of state polls were released. These polls suggested that Barack Obama's lead in fact was extended another tick (based on the previous day):However, this revised change in the popular vote did not change the Electoral College breakdown:Below is the table showing the current status in the swing states:Note how Florida remains close but in the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-32371549852307637512008-10-14T07:12:00.005+09:002008-10-14T07:34:36.009+09:00

For those wishing for something other than a boring coronation of Barack Obama on November 4th, the latest polls suggest that Obama's lead over John McCain has tightened several ticks:As a result, McCain's lead in Florida has lengthened to about 45,000 votes:Given McCain's Florida lead, it is reasonable to say that Florida has become comfortably pink (for the time being anyway):

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-32978023547342822122008-10-13T08:22:00.004+09:002008-10-13T10:03:14.927+09:00

News of the imminent demise of the Arctic ice cap at the peak of the summer melt have turned out to be very much exaggerated. It was widely reported in June that (see this BBC article featuring a photo of a cute seal apparently worried that it would soon have no more ice to play on) the 2008 summer melt would produce a new record minimum ice cover set only a year earlier. By late August the risk

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-25855659055928479952008-10-13T07:45:00.004+09:002008-10-13T10:06:07.403+09:00

The latest polls have detected something not observed for some time - movement back towards John McCain. The movement is not much (0.1 percentage points) but it is enough to flip Florida right back into the McCain camp and the overall election back into respectable territory for McCain.Given this flip back and forth over the past two days, it may be more reasonable to put Florida in the grey "

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-83862853941823916822008-10-12T06:47:00.007+09:002008-10-26T09:28:34.449+09:00

[Note that the electoral vote piechart below corrects the original piechart published yesterday. My apologies for the error.]My model suggests that Florida has finally flipped into the Barack Obama camp. If 200 votes in the Electoral College is a respectable showing for a defeated presidential candidate, the loss of Florida's 27 electoral votes means that John McCain has moved from the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-26776478256579337692008-10-11T18:35:00.005+09:002008-10-11T18:48:54.954+09:00

No rest for the weary, at least if you are in the John McCain camp. Barack Obama's lead continues to grow at a seemingly inexorable 0.1 percentage point a day or so rate. It's the kind of movement suggesting the possibility of recovery on the part of McCain is fast approaching zero. Obama's lead has grown by another 0.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours:Florida is slipping closer and

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-62471553495988083032008-10-10T17:59:00.003+09:002008-10-10T18:17:02.326+09:00

Things finally seemed to have calmed down in the U.S. presidential election over the past several days, if polls released during the last 48 hours are to be believed. Sure, Barack Obama has inched up yet one more tick at the national level according to my model:But McCain seems to have gained a tick or two in several swing states in spite of further gains by Obama at the national level:Note that

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-37556708550096038942008-10-08T18:37:00.004+09:002008-10-08T19:15:24.984+09:00

Tamino's "bet" has made a turn for an inconsequential result in 2008, the first year of his "bet". The September global anomaly was, according to NASA's GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), .49 degrees Celsius bringing the total average global temperature anomaly for 2008 for the first nine months of the year to 0.3978 degrees Celsius. According to Tamino, the critical value for 2008 is

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-47933386520828669812008-10-08T15:55:00.004+09:002008-10-08T18:12:24.184+09:00

. . . . and maybe match. I didn't watch the second presidential debate but the trading on Intrade suggested that Obama got the upper hand, even if that wasn't clear until the debate was over. The general verdict was that Obama won by risking nothing and making no blunders and that McCain lost because he failed miserably in his efforts to make any serious inroad into Obama's pre-debate edge. A

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-57570540459190976682008-10-07T17:32:00.006+09:002008-10-07T17:55:43.858+09:00

There are no falls in Nevada, a bone dry state from top to bottom where hardly a river runs through it. John McCain's lead in the state has dried up to nothing and Barack Obama now has a slender lead. This switch of this five electoral vote state into the Democratic column (for the moment anyway) means that Obama now has 322 electoral votes under his belt:Although the big picture in the election

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-9320176551074096022008-10-05T07:44:00.004+09:002008-10-05T08:19:17.180+09:00

John McCain's chances of winning the election are slowing dripping away - drop by drop, day by day. The latest national tracking polls suggest that Barack Obama is now nearing the 52% mark and the point at which he stands a good chance to earn a substantial victory in the Electoral College. My model suggests that Obama now has 51.9% of the two party popular vote:Obama's electoral vote margin

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-52499742532237772132008-10-03T05:34:00.005+09:002008-10-03T06:02:48.783+09:00

The presidential race has entered the fourth quarter and Barack Obama is slowly pulling away from John McCain. Day after day Obama scores baskets on McCain by simply doing nothing and letting the financial meltdown melt down Republican resistance to his becoming president. We are near the point where Obama will simply begin to hold on to the ball, avoid mistakes and try to run out the clock.At

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-16715209496342049422008-10-02T20:30:00.005+09:002008-10-03T06:04:08.726+09:00

[Note: The electoral vote figure for McCain below has been corrected from 222 to 221.]Which is what Barach Obama is doing right now. The polls suggest that Obama's lead has lengthened over the past 48 hours. This movement represents both the full effect of the first debate as well as the public's negative reaction towards the $700 billion financial industry bailout proposal. The victims of this

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-85287400370888072442008-09-30T21:41:00.002+09:002008-09-30T21:59:51.551+09:00

The public's verdict on the first presidential debate is beginning to come in and . . . . . . nothing much really happened. The needle has hardly moved. The temperature is still more or less the same. Obama's lead over McCain has inched up just a notch:Obama's electoral vote lead remains at 317-221. Very little movement in the swing states was recorded over the past 48 hours:Take a nap and check

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-48029653291199537082008-09-29T06:10:00.005+09:002008-09-29T06:27:01.239+09:00

John McCain spent too much time throwing red meat to the red state folks at the first presidential debate the other night and too little time trying to impress the undecided independent voters that will decide the election. Unfortunately for him, Barach Obama's lead heading into the debate was growing as we can see from the chart below:Obama's share of the vote appears to have increased by 0.6

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-39553402619976107942008-09-27T15:48:00.008+09:002008-09-27T16:26:20.685+09:00

The first presidential debate between John McCain and Barach Obama came and went earlier today (evening in the US) but it will be several days before the impact of the debate, if any, will be clear. On a purely stylistic level the debate was apparently "won" by Obama. As far as I was concerned however, neither candidate appeared interested in seriously engaging in a real discussion on the most

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-90849737839349525872008-09-25T08:02:00.004+09:002008-09-25T09:14:27.744+09:00

Barach Obama has, according to my model, taken a narrow lead both in the popular vote and in the Electoral College vote based on a number of polls released over the past 36 hours. As has been the case in recent days, the state-level polls are suggesting a closer race than the national-level polls. The national polls released over the past 10 days suggest that Obama has a 3.4 percentage vote lead.

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-33996588264664606302008-09-24T11:24:00.004+09:002008-09-24T12:09:30.936+09:00

I've added a time decay factor to polls in the model so that older polls have less weight than more recent polls. National polls are assumed to decay in value over a 10-day period while state level polls are assumed to decay in value over a 14-day period. This change gives the daily tracking polls much more weight than before, as well they should. I also found a pile of mostly state-level polls

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-14707655516583309522008-09-21T07:16:00.005+09:002008-09-21T08:02:45.430+09:00

Well, sort of. I guess. Maybe. But I'm not sure. The national tracking polls have definitely been trending towards Barack Obama over the past five days but this national trend isn't necessarily in evidence at the state level. A good example of this is in Ohio where a plethora of polls suggest that there has been very little movement one way or other over the past 10 days. Another example is in

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-4649207085567493302008-09-20T10:12:00.007+09:002008-09-21T08:04:21.678+09:00

Although it has been little noted in the media the earth has been going through a cooling trend over the past nine months. During this period average global temperatures have declined by about .10 degrees Celsius (based on a 12-month moving average of the global temperature anomaly). Given the range of natural temperature fluctuations possible in the short term, most scientists would probably

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-13648146061818716202008-09-20T09:23:00.005+09:002008-09-20T10:12:31.332+09:00

But no movement. A total of nine state polls and four national tracking polls produced no meaningful net movement in my model meaning that the two candidates remain virtually tied in the popular vote and separated by 10 votes in the Electoral College. Below is the current electoral map according to my model:To give a bit more flavor of the race's dynamics I have colored those states where the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-65366671766111052342008-09-19T18:42:00.006+09:002008-09-19T22:17:37.126+09:00

Is all that separates John McCain from Barach Obama. An avalanche of 27 state and 6 national polls released yesterday suggest that the race is a virtual dead heat in the popular vote and that McCain is hanging on by a thread in the Electoral College:The table below shows the state of the race in the eight states where the candidates are separated by less than four percentage points:I've made a

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-53315334018523155922008-09-18T05:57:00.010+09:002008-09-18T06:22:06.913+09:00

The lastest polling confirms the trend in Barack Obama's direction I discussed the other day. The movement is not dramatic, but dramatic is probably not what the doctor would order at this stage in the race anyway:More importantly, the shift has removed Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania from Obama's list of endangered states and has put Virginia back on John McCain's side of the ledger

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-15879634809969626212008-09-17T05:37:00.003+09:002008-09-17T06:08:55.670+09:00

As I predicted yesterday, the momentum towards Barack Obama has continued over the past 24 hours. At a grass-growing pace. The three national tracking polls did show a shift towards Obama of about one percentage point. However, this movement was blunted by a George Washington University sponsored poll that showed John McCain with a four percentage point lead over Obama nationally. Further lack of

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-26884224924924633542008-09-16T05:35:00.007+09:002008-09-16T07:41:29.795+09:00

More precisely, we finally have a poll from the First State (so named because it was the first state to ratify the new Constitution in 1787). The Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters gives Obama a 55%-43% lead in Delaware、within a point of the lead my model has been showing. I've been adding Delaware to the model (it takes time because I have to go through every state in which Delaware meets the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-45170064473426558762008-09-15T12:29:00.006+09:002008-09-20T11:03:39.158+09:00

A reader kindly noted to me last month that Tamino made a slight correction to his "bet" , sometime in July. Tamino notes in his blog that "In this post I made a simple error in the statement of the bet: rather than give the equation of the lower dashed red line, I gave the equation for the trend line itself. The constant was given as 0.277455, when it should have been 0.085655. This has been

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-9960805842510220102008-09-15T07:30:00.007+09:002008-09-15T10:27:05.593+09:00

Yesterday I noted that there had been no post-convention poll in Iowa and that, in its absence, my model was showing McCain ahead in the state. Well, the pollsters heard of my dilemna and rustled up real quick an Iowa poll to fill that gaping gap. According to the Des Moines Register's poll, Obama is ahead in Iowa by a 52% to 40% margin. As this margin is similar to that shown in at least one

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-27374875402324343642008-09-14T22:04:00.005+09:002008-09-14T22:55:39.125+09:00

My computer screen unexpectedly died the other day, requiring a trip by the computer to the computer hospital for an operation to replace the screen. The operation was a success and the computer was returned to my office this morning. As my model was on this computer, I was forced to wait patiently for the computer to come home so that I could update the model.While the computer was ill, the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-1801568719579055992008-09-06T11:14:00.002+09:002008-09-06T11:29:15.809+09:00

The tracking polls are clearly suggesting that the pendulum has now begun to swing back towards the Republicans. My own model is showing that the race is very tight with Obama clinging to a 0.6 percentage point lead (50.3%-49.7%). However, since most of the state level polls were taken before the conventions and since the state level polls were a bit weighted towards McCain by the time the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-82800231776221994042008-09-05T22:28:00.004+09:002008-09-05T22:44:06.707+09:00

For the returns, er, polls to come in. The size of the Republican post-convention bounce should become apparent over the next several days after which the shape of the election heading into the stretch run should become clearer. The movement towards McCain over the past several days seems fairly slight as my model suggests that Obama continues to hold on to a slender, but definitive, lead:The

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-8318762151539077092008-09-04T20:32:00.002+09:002008-09-04T21:11:57.126+09:00

You have to admit, Sarah Palin's name lends itself naturally to interesting wordplay. She wowed the faithful in her acceptance speech at the Republican convention on Wednesday evening. If you want a gauge of the impression she made, go now further than this Mother Jones Seal of Approval. Mother Jones is certified genuine left-wing article and so you know that David Corn is trying to wake up the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-6392797886187702282008-09-04T05:03:00.004+09:002008-09-04T21:03:22.772+09:00

Some evidence of a Palin anti-bounce emerged in the polling yesterday as Barack Obama's lead jumped to 2.6 percentage points, according to my model. I'm calling it an anti-Palin bounce because the Demo's post-convention bounced seems to have been completely cut off, meaning that the public are now responding to event surrounding the Republican convention including the news that Palin's 17-year

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-24291112358113116072008-09-02T20:19:00.004+09:002008-09-02T20:25:17.570+09:00

Polling showed very little movement in the presidential race over the past 24 hours. Barack Obama gained 0.2 percentage points on John McCain according to my model, but this may be little more than noise in the data. Obama's leads by 50.7% to 49.3% in the popular vote and leads 304-234 in the Electoral College. The table below shows the race in the closest states:Colorado remains on the knife

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-23086855625372366982008-09-01T20:10:00.006+09:002008-09-01T20:51:38.632+09:00

The Democrats convention and post-convention bounce, such as it was, is over. Sarah Palin's selection as the Republican vice presidential candidate appears to have already created a minor bounce of its own, and this is before the Republican convention gets underway in earnest.Perhaps I should say in gustav in deference to the Norwegian-inspired tropical hurricane now rampaging through Louisiana.

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-27158102730689792282008-08-31T18:17:00.002+09:002008-08-31T18:29:09.411+09:00

The updated Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls for August 30th showed no change in Obama's lead over McCain (at eight and four percentage points respectively). Because these polls were taken the day after Barack Obama's acceptance speech, one may conclude that Obama received no bounce from his well-received speech. Since the morning of August 30th was when Sarah Palin was named as McCain's

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-7780831691932299942008-08-30T19:42:00.004+09:002008-08-30T20:11:25.048+09:00

Barack Obama continued to gain momentum according to the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls released on Friday and based on polling performed through the Thursday the 28th. The Gallup polls gives Obama an eight percentage point lead while the Rasmussen poll gives him a four percentage point lead. Imputting the result of these polls into my model produces a 1.8 percentage point lead for Obama, a

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-70578512458816303742008-08-30T06:42:00.008+09:002008-08-30T19:45:48.789+09:00

John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was absolutely brilliant and, more likely than not, will deliver him the U.S. presidency in two months (and change) time. Here's why:1. The boldness of the selection completely took the spotlight away from Barack Obama's acceptance speech and blunted its eventual impact.2. By selecting a woman, McCain highlighted the fact that Obama passed over Hillary Clinton

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-37482793600890315452008-08-29T19:06:00.007+09:002008-08-30T19:44:44.481+09:00

Finally, the polls have indicated the beginning of a bounce towards Barack Obama. The Wednesday tracking polling done by Gallup indicated a substantial one-day six percentage point lurch towards Obama. However, in sharp contrast, the Rasmussen tracking poll actually shifted one percentage point towards McCain on the same day. This just shows you how volatile polling can be. The best way to deal

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-30248670138174754582008-08-28T21:00:00.004+09:002008-08-29T19:05:28.090+09:00

Barack Obama experienced a bit of a bounce in the polls during the Day Two polling as both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls moved one percentage point in Obama's direction. As I discussed in yesterday's post (as noted by Nate Silver of the blog 538.com), today's tracking polls likely reflected the impact of Day One of the convention. Five state polls also released yesterday also suggested

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-69549679428671408182008-08-27T18:23:00.006+09:002008-08-27T18:47:27.576+09:00

appears to be somewhat underwhelming if two tracking polls from respected polling organizations (Gallup and Rasmussen) released over the past 24 hours are to be believed. In fact, feeding the results from these polls into my model suggests that McCain now has a modest popular vote lead over Obama of about 0.6 percentage points:National Popular Vote BreakdownAs Nate Silver noted in the election

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-74567371284793440042008-08-26T19:29:00.004+09:002008-08-26T19:38:39.127+09:00

. . . . and no significant change yet in the numbers. The Rasmussen moving average tracking poll has shown a slight shift towards Obama the last two days (one percentage point a day) while the Gallup tracking poll has shown no movement whatsoever. The conclusion is that there is no clear budging from the 50%-50% point we have been stuck in for most of the past week. My model shows Obama with a

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-67743049749146564952008-08-25T19:39:00.003+09:002008-08-29T19:57:45.472+09:00

with the election race as tight as it could possibly be. A number of polls released over the weekend taken in Rocky Mountain states painted a clear picture of an election looking more and more like a rerun of the last two presidential races. A Utah poll showed McCain with a lopsided 62% to 23% lead while a poll taken in neighboring Wyoming showed McCain running and hiding by a 62% to 25% margin.

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-1081287988013969252008-08-24T14:52:00.004+09:002008-08-24T15:50:03.536+09:00

While the world waited impatiently for the actual text message of Obama's VP selection to be sent out, word of Joe Biden's selection leaked out several hours in advance. The official announcement was in the end a non-event. So much for trying to appear hip and modern.Obama's selection of Biden represented as safe a call as Obama could possibly have made. Biden is an eastern Pennsylvania/Delaware

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-42701197178594011342008-08-23T15:09:00.010+09:002008-08-25T20:25:14.727+09:00

Another batch of polls over the past 24 hours show a renewed tightening of the presidential sweepstakes. Basically, it can hardly get tighter than this:National Two Party Vote SharesI estimate that Barack Obama's lead in the popular vote, were the election to be held today, at only about 250,000 votes out of a likely 125,000,000 to be cast for the two main presidential candidates. The tightening

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-68038667005689944602008-08-22T17:25:00.005+09:002008-08-22T18:07:03.034+09:00

John McCain's recent "surge" that put has him within whispering distance of Barack Obama has apparently crested over the past 24 hours as Obama's popular vote lead has increased (according to my model) from 0.8 percentage points to 1.0 percentage points:National TwoParty Popular Vote SharesIt will be interesting to see how McCain's "House-gate" statement plays out with the general public. Obama

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-30060640833618651242008-08-21T19:58:00.010+09:002008-08-21T20:39:46.605+09:00

Another day, another set of polls and yet more momentum towards John McCain. My models suggest that McCain slashed the gap between he and Barack Obama by 0.8 percentage points:National Two Party Popular Vote SharesThe Democratic convention in Denver won't come a day too soon. While the Electoral College vote breakdown remains unchanged (at 295 for Obama and 243 for McCain) a sliver more movement

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-31654964594680900282008-08-20T20:46:00.007+09:002008-08-20T21:29:44.274+09:00

A slew of national and state polls released over the past 24 hours paint a picture of a presidential election race that has narrowed to the point where it is too close to call. My election forecasting model suggests that at the national level McCain has pulled to within 1.6 percentage points:National Two Party Popular Vote Shares In spite of the narrowing spread at the national level, the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-40355390192739687222008-08-19T21:46:00.009+09:002008-08-19T22:19:48.546+09:00

A slew of polls, two national and five state, were released today. The state polls included Georgia, Ohio, New York, Illinois and Tennessee only one of which, Ohio, is a swing state. Since it had been more than a month since polls were released in Illinois and Tennessee, the addition of these polls makes the overall results just a bit more robust. I am now working on introducing the results of

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-48296811174971904972008-08-18T18:47:00.004+09:002008-08-18T19:00:37.742+09:00

Since no new polls were released during the past 24 hours, there's nothing new to update at the national level. I will take the opportunity however to note the current standings between Obama and McCain in the swing state of Missouri:Missouri Two Party Vote ShareObama has a 2.6 percentage point lead in Missouri according to my model. This does contrast with most polling which suggests McCain has

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-55703885676701556722008-08-17T17:34:00.009+09:002008-08-17T19:46:56.621+09:00

Based on my model for each of the 50 U.S. states and D.C., Obama currently leads McCain in the overall popular vote by 2.6 percentage points:Two Party Popular Vote ShareObama's lead in the Electoral College is somewhat more substantial:Electoral College Vote TotalsSeven states appear to be crucial swing states that will decide the election if it remains close on election day. These include

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-36280119518105842302008-08-15T16:50:00.003+09:002008-08-15T17:39:39.855+09:00

This post is the sixth in a series of posts on a "bet" made by Tamino in January of this year. Tamino's position is that the trend of increasing average temperatures at the earth's surface will continue into the forseeable future. In order to test his assertion that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend he has set conditions for

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-66983163359847388972008-08-12T22:11:00.009+09:002008-08-13T15:32:37.705+09:00

I've developed a method to estimate the most likely current state-by-state two-party percentage distribution in the upcoming presidential election. The method takes advantage the fact that the two-party distribution of votes in any given state are correlated with the distribution of votes in number of other states. This basic fact means that polling data in, say, California, may be reasonably

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-83046345232239176822008-06-15T10:52:00.004+09:002008-08-15T16:49:47.110+09:00

As has been noted in previous posts, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.2. If

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-23308434012584968982008-06-15T09:39:00.004+09:002008-06-15T09:57:21.631+09:00

If the perceptions of people risking their money are to be believed, Barack Obama's Electoral College margin over John McCain has increased over the past week. According to current prices for the derivatives for each of the 51 states and the District of Columbia on the Intrade trading platform, Obama now leads in New Hampshire and (by a razor thin margin) in Virginia. The addition of these two

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-62907633782474783522008-06-09T07:26:00.007+09:002008-06-09T17:20:50.529+09:00

Below is the electoral map assuming a perfectly even 50-50 divide between the two major candidates. Those states labeled as "weak Obama" are those states where Obama would likely win in a close election but for which his margin of victory would be less than five percentage points. Similarly, those states labeled as "weak McCain" are those states where McCain would likely win in a close election

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-28784765708071370752008-06-08T13:15:00.007+09:002008-06-15T09:38:57.220+09:00

Nothing helps to focus the mind like money. Intrade, the web site that creates derivative markets for various events, has created derivatives for each U.S. state in the upcoming presidential election. These derivatives are based on which political party will win the electoral votes in a given state. The "price" of the derivative is the perceived probability of the event taking place, that is,

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-1204735360768001642008-06-05T06:56:00.017+09:002008-06-07T13:53:12.615+09:00

While Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Clinton is being hailed as significant because a previously unbreachable racial barrier has effectively been dissolved, of potentially greater long term significance is the fact that his triumph essentially completes the Democratic Party's transformation from being the champions of America's social and economic outsiders into that political party

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-19883021801970792192008-05-25T11:21:00.004+09:002008-06-15T10:52:23.706+09:00

As I have noted previously, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.2. If the average

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-39926074984589749262008-05-11T19:32:00.007+09:002008-05-11T20:16:46.996+09:00

Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President of the United States in 2008. His narrow, deep base of Blacks and urban, upper-middle class liberal Whites was numerically strong enough to battle Hillary Clinton's broad base of large state White, Latino and Asian center-right Democrats in the primary states to a draw. His organizational skills in the (mostly small) caucus states established a

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-75305364223608732192008-05-11T14:45:00.018+09:002008-05-12T04:54:39.648+09:00

[note: The below post has several minor revisions and adjustments to the original post]I have developed a model of the global temperature anomaly (using the NOAA NCDC time series as the benchmark series) for the 2008 to 2037 period based on three assumptions:1. That the general temperature trend during this period will be similar to that observed in the 1880 to 1911 and 1943 to 1975 cooling

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-8996216181290730662008-05-05T09:44:00.016+09:002008-05-05T14:41:21.081+09:00

As I noted in an earlier post, the Democratic contest has been cast in terms of a White-Black racial divide and a blue collar-white collar class divide. In this post I will show you that while little mention has thus far been given to the voting patterns of other ethnic groups during this contest, the evidence suggests that members of other ethnic groups appear no more disposed to vote for Obama

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-24334024800476299382008-05-03T12:50:00.008+09:002008-05-05T10:06:26.027+09:00

An article posted today on the Yahoo web site demonstrates how widespread innumeracy in America and, to a lesser extent, the degree of media bias regarding the Barack Obama campaign. The article was titled "Early Indiana turnout heavy in strong Obama counties" and it stated the following:Early voting in Indiana could offer some encouragement to presidential hopeful Barack Obama, who needs a

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-2006264302707400922008-05-02T14:31:00.004+09:002008-05-02T18:12:41.389+09:00

In November last year, less than six months ago, the world's most recognized and esteemed climate scientists and other members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gathered in Valencia, Spain to formally ratify the AR4 Synthesis Report on climate change. According to information presented on the title page of this report the authors of the draft from which the report was put together

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-3779684611115848682008-05-01T21:52:00.010+09:002008-05-02T19:33:56.431+09:00

Barack Obama's 54.6%-45.4% defeat to Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary did nothing to dispel the notion that he is the weakest presidential nomination front runner in the primary system era (that is, since 1976). His defeat marked the third consecutive defeat in a major state and the margin in Pennsylvania was similar to the 10.3% margin he suffered in Ohio. More importantly, the same

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-19582593455126284712008-04-25T09:16:00.014+09:002008-05-01T14:53:58.942+09:00

I've been reading Queller and Madden's masterful and scholarly work on the most important event in European history between the collapse of the Western Roman Empire and the present - the sack of Constantinople in April of 1204 by the noble knights of the infamous Fourth Crusade. This work traces the improbable series of events that led the Crusaders away from their original intention to reclaim

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-89444030686414371182008-04-13T18:00:00.003+09:002008-04-13T21:10:53.804+09:00

As I have noted previously, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.2. If the average

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-54488248880571938562008-04-13T11:32:00.004+09:002008-04-13T13:06:20.016+09:00

The Stern Report argued that the cost of "fighting" global warming is low compared with the long term effect of rising temperatures while the most recent IPCC report argued that the cost of "inaction" on global warming was high. It is also suggested that tens, if not hundreds of millions of people may in time be negatively affected by inaction on the threat of global warming and that the world's

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-50003017156113409152008-04-06T07:05:00.003+09:002008-04-06T09:00:49.143+09:00

. . . does not appear to be in the cards. Robert Mugabe clearly miscalculated the extent to which his own people have had enough of his misrule but he nonetheless looks determined to stay on at any and all costs. As of this writing Mugabe's Zanu-PF party have announced their willingness to have Mugabe participate in a presidential election runoff and the ruling party have decided to challenge the

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-16950154952176929732008-03-29T16:58:00.014+09:002008-03-30T11:59:40.291+09:00

Barack Obama appears likely to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2008. He also looks likely to lose the general election to John McCain. As I will show below, the evidence from a number of primary elections held thus far suggests that Obama's support is concentrated in urban areas and that his performance in suburban areas and small towns, where a large majority of general election votes

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-16119345465595611122008-03-12T07:47:00.009+09:002008-03-16T11:14:47.249+09:00

In the cinema classic "Glengarry Glen Ross" real estate salesmen Jack Lemmon, Ed Harris and Alan Arkin beg office manager Kevin Spacey for access to the "Glengarry leads" the magical names and phone numbers containing potentially good prospects they believe can save them from financial disaster. Please imagine that a sequel to this film, "Glengarry Glen Ross 2" has just been released but that Fed

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-81133764130666461832008-03-11T17:30:00.002+09:002008-03-11T18:58:52.586+09:00

As I noted last month, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.2. If the average

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-14353368753184821072008-03-08T08:19:00.016+09:002008-03-11T17:19:03.713+09:00

Once in a long while I see something written on the internet truly thoughtful and insightful. Even more rarely, such thought and insight appears in a blog discussion. The following comment on climate modeling, by a gentleman named Ajit from Sunnyvale California, appeared on the New York Times website on a blog discussion on the recent climate change skeptics conference held in New York (I have

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-88936373395771977852008-03-06T07:21:00.011+09:002008-03-06T18:21:36.413+09:00

Michiyo Nakamoto discusses Japan's apparent willingness to erect new barriers to foreign investment in the FT's March 2nd issue. Nakamoto remarks on what may reasonably be described as a landmark speech given on January 24th by MITI's top bureaucrat Takao Kitabata. Kitabata's speech, which was widely reported in both the domestic Japanese press as well as the international press, was significant

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-89890171254586214012008-03-01T20:07:00.012+09:002008-03-06T18:24:35.645+09:00

Paul Klemperer, an Oxford University economist, uses a curious chain of logic to argue in the Financial Times that uncertainty about the extent of climate change should led us to be more, not less, worried about its potential risks. Klemperer uses the following analogy to turn the argument by skeptics that climate change forecasts are speculative and unreliable on its head and argue that

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-26419367812702475282008-02-23T13:42:00.004+09:002008-03-06T18:25:01.738+09:00

I recently noted an article on the BBC website regarding the threat from global warming to Antarctic species and that a closer read of the article revealed that the real threat was from the dumping of ships' ballast water. This article in the New York Times, dated February 20, 2008, provides an overview of the threat from introducing invasive species to new environments via ships' ballast water.

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-25326205604254361572008-02-22T16:08:00.006+09:002008-02-23T13:13:04.981+09:00

According to articles in the New York Times and Washington Post the federal Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) is preparing a plan designed to help ease the financial pain experienced by lenders who recklessly provided highly leveraged financing to prospective home"owners" during the peak housing bubble years and who are now facing enormous potential losses as the US housing market collapses and

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6204648664686733903.post-35266608122700574032008-02-17T15:20:00.004+09:002008-02-17T17:23:25.405+09:00

A federal appeals court in the U.S. earlier this month dismissed efforts by the US Environmental Protection Agency to compel as many as 30 states to adopt less restrictive mercury emission regulations than what the states themselves wanted to impose on power plants located within their juristiction. Details of this effort by the Bush Administration's E.P.A. are located in this article.E.P.A.

John Tofflemirehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04838194385611149115noreply@blogger.com0