As I noted last month, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:
1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.
2. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, is less than or equal to .4035 degrees Celsius, the "not-warming" side will receive one point.
3. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, falls between these two figures, both sides will receive zero points in 2008.
The "winner" of the bet will be the first side to receive two points during the 2008 to 2015 period. Since the threshold for the "not-warming" side will rise slowly throughout the period (at the same rate as the trend line in the 1975 to 2007 period), the probability that zero points will be awarded in a given calendar year will decrease during the course of the bet.
As readers of this blog may have seen in other posts in this blog, this writer believes that the earth has recently entered a cooling cycle that will last for, approximately, the next 30 years. As a result, I believe that Tamino is destined to "lose" his bet.
In fact, the "not-warming" side is off to a "hot" start just two months into this bet. The February NASA GISS figures are just in and they show a global anomaly of .26 degrees for the month. Since the January anomaly figure was .12 degrees, the average for the year thus far is .19 degrees or well below the .4035 degree threshold for 2008. It is interesting to note that this .19 degree average for a two month period is the lowest since February-March of 1994. In order for the "not-warming" side to win a point in 2008, the average anomaly for the reminder of the year would need to be below .446 degrees. Since the average anomaly for a 10-month period has exceeded this figure for every month since September 2001, it would still seem unlikely that the "not-warming" side will win the point in 2008. Unless, of course, "something" has changed. Stay tuned!