Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Final Presidential Election Forecast - Obama Will Win

The final polling numbers are in and Barack Obama is on track to win the US Presidential election today. My final popular vote percentage shares are unchanged from earlier in the day:
And my final electoral vote figures are unchanged as well:

Here is the final electoral map showing my forecast for each state:

Below is a state-by-state presidential election race forecast of the popular and electoral vote. Click on the image to get a larger view in your computer:

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Final Election Forecast A

The polls in the US will open (in the Eastern time zone) within an hour or so. Although there are a number of final polling results that will be released in the next few hours, I would like to offer my initial presidential election forecast. I will be modifying this initial forecast as the final polling numbers come in; however, I do not expect a substantial change in the figures I am giving here.

Barack Obama, the likely President elect, continues to consolidate his popular vote gains of the past 48 hours:

He appears to have also gone into the lead in Florida, thus increasing his electoral vote lead:

The resulting national electoral map is as follows:

There are a number of changes in the national electoral map. Florida has gone into the Obama camp while Montana, South Dakota and Indiana have gone into the swing state category. Should Barack Obama carry these states colored pink, he will gain a substantial Electoral College vote victory.

I will be updating the above forecast before the first polls close. That will be my final presidential election forecast.

Some Confusion on November 3rd

With only 24 hours to go, today's polls offer a curiously mixed picture of where the election is moving. The national tracking polls are telling us that Barack Obama is putting more distance between he and John McCain, suggesting that Obama may win going way. The state polling is telling a completely different story, a story of tightening, competitive, exciting races in Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida and close contests in Virginia and Colorado making for a potentially entertaining election evening tomorrow. This contrast is even more curious since these national and state polls have been done over virtually the same period, namely October 30th to November 2nd. All we can do is input the numbers and let the model crank out the results. The overall movement towards Obama has been about 0.8 percentage points:

However, because of the state level polling results, we show no movement in the Electoral College vote distribution over the past 24 hours:

There has been one change in the current national electoral map though. Virginia is once again out of the swing state club. Otherwise, there has been no change:

The swing state table shows that John McCain is hanging on by his fingernails in Florida:

My model suggests that Missouri and Ohio are reasonably comfortable for Obama:

There should be one last day of polling coming up. I am going to take these results, update the model and release my state-by-state election forecast. That should be available in time for the first polls closing at 7:00 PM Eastern time (9:00 AM Tokyo time on Wednesday for those of you following in Japan).

Monday, November 3, 2008

Shifting Breezes

The winds seem to have shifted back towards John McCain over the past 24 hours but at this point they are little more than a gentle breeze that will still leave he and his crew watching Barack Obama's boat sail across the finish line first next Tuesday:

Of course, we are likely to see more movement over the next 48 hours than we have seen over any equal period during the campaign. If it is towards Obama, he will be heading for a significant win in the Electoral College; if towards McCain, it may be some hours before the outcome on Tuesday is clear. The current standings in the Electoral College vote remain unchanged:

The national electoral map has changed a bit over the past 24 hours. Virginia has shifted back into swing state mode; as we shall see in a little bit, Ohio and Missouri are not far behind:

North Carolina has seen a 0.6 percentage point shift towards McCain over the past 24 hours and he has seen his lead over Obama in Florida grow by about 30,000 votes. McCain still faces an uphill climb to overtake Obama in Virginia and Colorado:

McCain's fortunes in the Bellwether states have improved a bit since yesterday:

At this pace though, McCain is running out of time. Below is the estimated breakdown in the popular and electoral vote by region (as identified in earlier posts in this series):

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Coasting to the Finish Line

Barack Obama is coasting towards the finish line next Tuesday. The Saturday polls suggest a fraction of popular vote movement in his direction:

The Electoral College breakdown remains stuck at Obama 322-McCain 216:

The national electoral remains unchanged from the previous day:

The swing states showed a very slight movement towards Obama over the past 24 hours:

Curiously, there was a very slight, insignificant movement in John McCain's direction in the Bellwether states over the past 24 hours:

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Momentum Obama

Barack Obama has taken back the momentum in the presidential election and now looks on the verge of winning the presidency next Tuesday. According to my model, Obama's lead jumped by 0.8 percentage points during the last 24 hours and now stands at 6.0 percentage points:

There has been no change once again in the Electoral College vote breakdown:

However, there have been changes in the current national electoral map. Virginia has once again moved out of the swing state column and has been replaced in the list by North Carolina. Indiana, South Dakota and Montana remain near swing state territory:

John McCain's lead in Florida has been sliced to only 0.4 percentage points. Any further movement towards Obama and Florida will likely slip away to the Democrats. McCain's lead in North Carolina only stands at 3.2 percentage points in a state that Obama would dearly love to win. Colorado and Nevada do remain close, but with the momentum running towards Obama he looks increasingly likely to hold these Outer West states:

Not surprisingly, Obama has made solid gains in the Bellwether states:

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Frozen Market and Pacific Overview

Not only are the credit markets frozen, the presidential election markets have frozen up as well. The latest updated polls show no change in the national popular vote:

And neither in the Electoral College vote:

And not even in the current national electoral map:

Forget about any significant change in the swing states compared with yesterday:

At least there was a tiny bit of movement in the Bellwether states:

Our regional series concludes with an overview of the Pacific region. [Note: This detail was added later.] This is another familiar region in the US for myself as I lived in California as a youngster and in Washington state as a young adult.

California and Oregon had joined the Union by the piviotal election of 1860 and both states voted narrowly for Abraham Lincoln by narrow margins in that election. Being that both states were originally settled by people from the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, it is not surprising that both states voted like Republican northern states between 1860 and 1888. From 1892 (when Washington state joined the Union) to 1960 the region leaned very slightly Republican (and Oregon more so). The region (including Hawaii which joined the Union in 1960) has tilted Democratic since the pivotal election of 1964, especially Hawaii and Washington. From 1992, the region has voted Democratic as a bloc and it appears that this region is poised to do the same in 2008: