Tamino's Bet Month Four

As I have noted previously, Tamino has made a "bet" that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:

1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.
2. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, is less than or equal to .4035 degrees Celsius, the "not-warming" side will receive one point.
3. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, falls between these two figures, both sides will receive zero points in 2008.

The April figures reveal a significant decline in the NASA GISS global temperature anomaly from March as well as a modest downward revision in March's global temperature anomaly. the previous month. The April global anomaly was .41 degrees Celsius, .19 degrees lower than the revised March global anomaly of .60 degrees (the original figure was .67 degrees). The average NASA GISS global temperature anomaly thus far for the first four months of 2008 is .35 degrees Celsius. In order for the "not-warming" side to win a point in 2008, the average anomaly for the reminder of the year would need to be below .4303 degrees. My own forecast for the remainder of the year is for the global temperature anomaly to average .5059 degrees. Thus, I don't expect that the "not-warming" side will win the point in 2008.