Below is the electoral map assuming a perfectly even 50-50 divide between the two major candidates. Those states labeled as "weak Obama" are those states where Obama would likely win in a close election but for which his margin of victory would be less than five percentage points. Similarly, those states labeled as "weak McCain" are those states where McCain would likely win in a close election but for which his margin of victory would be less than five percentage points.
There are 12 states that lean weakly for either candidate. These states will be the battleground states in this upcoming election.
Obama would appear to have a very slight advantage in a close election since those states leaning to him in a close election have 272 electoral votes compared with 266 electoral votes for those states leaning to McCain in a close election.
Note that this map is very similar to one found on the New York Times web site. However, I have come up with the above map by developing a model that takes into consideration the change in Black and Latino populations in each state since the last presidential election and potential levels of support from each ethnic group for each candidate. In other words, I think the NYT map just about gets it right.