Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Final Election Forecast A

The polls in the US will open (in the Eastern time zone) within an hour or so. Although there are a number of final polling results that will be released in the next few hours, I would like to offer my initial presidential election forecast. I will be modifying this initial forecast as the final polling numbers come in; however, I do not expect a substantial change in the figures I am giving here.

Barack Obama, the likely President elect, continues to consolidate his popular vote gains of the past 48 hours:

He appears to have also gone into the lead in Florida, thus increasing his electoral vote lead:

The resulting national electoral map is as follows:

There are a number of changes in the national electoral map. Florida has gone into the Obama camp while Montana, South Dakota and Indiana have gone into the swing state category. Should Barack Obama carry these states colored pink, he will gain a substantial Electoral College vote victory.

I will be updating the above forecast before the first polls close. That will be my final presidential election forecast.

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