Monday, November 3, 2008

Shifting Breezes

The winds seem to have shifted back towards John McCain over the past 24 hours but at this point they are little more than a gentle breeze that will still leave he and his crew watching Barack Obama's boat sail across the finish line first next Tuesday:

Of course, we are likely to see more movement over the next 48 hours than we have seen over any equal period during the campaign. If it is towards Obama, he will be heading for a significant win in the Electoral College; if towards McCain, it may be some hours before the outcome on Tuesday is clear. The current standings in the Electoral College vote remain unchanged:

The national electoral map has changed a bit over the past 24 hours. Virginia has shifted back into swing state mode; as we shall see in a little bit, Ohio and Missouri are not far behind:

North Carolina has seen a 0.6 percentage point shift towards McCain over the past 24 hours and he has seen his lead over Obama in Florida grow by about 30,000 votes. McCain still faces an uphill climb to overtake Obama in Virginia and Colorado:

McCain's fortunes in the Bellwether states have improved a bit since yesterday:

At this pace though, McCain is running out of time. Below is the estimated breakdown in the popular and electoral vote by region (as identified in earlier posts in this series):

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