Saturday, November 1, 2008

Momentum Obama

Barack Obama has taken back the momentum in the presidential election and now looks on the verge of winning the presidency next Tuesday. According to my model, Obama's lead jumped by 0.8 percentage points during the last 24 hours and now stands at 6.0 percentage points:

There has been no change once again in the Electoral College vote breakdown:

However, there have been changes in the current national electoral map. Virginia has once again moved out of the swing state column and has been replaced in the list by North Carolina. Indiana, South Dakota and Montana remain near swing state territory:

John McCain's lead in Florida has been sliced to only 0.4 percentage points. Any further movement towards Obama and Florida will likely slip away to the Democrats. McCain's lead in North Carolina only stands at 3.2 percentage points in a state that Obama would dearly love to win. Colorado and Nevada do remain close, but with the momentum running towards Obama he looks increasingly likely to hold these Outer West states:

Not surprisingly, Obama has made solid gains in the Bellwether states:

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