Thursday, October 30, 2008

Frozen Market and Pacific Overview

Not only are the credit markets frozen, the presidential election markets have frozen up as well. The latest updated polls show no change in the national popular vote:

And neither in the Electoral College vote:

And not even in the current national electoral map:

Forget about any significant change in the swing states compared with yesterday:

At least there was a tiny bit of movement in the Bellwether states:

Our regional series concludes with an overview of the Pacific region. [Note: This detail was added later.] This is another familiar region in the US for myself as I lived in California as a youngster and in Washington state as a young adult.

California and Oregon had joined the Union by the piviotal election of 1860 and both states voted narrowly for Abraham Lincoln by narrow margins in that election. Being that both states were originally settled by people from the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, it is not surprising that both states voted like Republican northern states between 1860 and 1888. From 1892 (when Washington state joined the Union) to 1960 the region leaned very slightly Republican (and Oregon more so). The region (including Hawaii which joined the Union in 1960) has tilted Democratic since the pivotal election of 1964, especially Hawaii and Washington. From 1992, the region has voted Democratic as a bloc and it appears that this region is poised to do the same in 2008:

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