Saturday, September 6, 2008

Here Come the Elephants

The tracking polls are clearly suggesting that the pendulum has now begun to swing back towards the Republicans. My own model is showing that the race is very tight with Obama clinging to a 0.6 percentage point lead (50.3%-49.7%). However, since most of the state level polls were taken before the conventions and since the state level polls were a bit weighted towards McCain by the time the conventions began, I suspect that Obama's actual lead is closer to 2 percentage points. My model is also showing that Obama's Electoral College vote lead is a slender 275-263. However, the model has McCain up by less than 1,000 votes in Ohio (out of more than 5.6 million) but I suspect that in reality Obama remains very slightly ahead in Ohio. This in turn means that the electoral vote is more likely remains at 295-243 in favor of Obama.

The next 48 hours are probably critical. Should the Republican bounce be limited, the election is likely to stay close until at least the debates, if not just before the election. However, should the bounce be significant, then McCain would then be in the driver's seat and Obama would be forced to take chances.

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