Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Watching Grass Grow

As I predicted yesterday, the momentum towards Barack Obama has continued over the past 24 hours. At a grass-growing pace. The three national tracking polls did show a shift towards Obama of about one percentage point. However, this movement was blunted by a George Washington University sponsored poll that showed John McCain with a four percentage point lead over Obama nationally. Further lack of evidence of substantial movement towards Obama came in the shape of a Public Policy Polling poll (try saying that quickly three times) in Ohio that showed McCain with a four percentage point lead in the Buckeye State. On the other hand, two polls from New Jersey more or less confirmed my model's view that Obama's lead there is in the six to eight percentage point range. The result of this mix is a very, very slight movement towards Obama, but not enough to quicken the pulse.

This movement was however enough to take Minnesota off of the list of Endangered States for Barack Obama as his share of the two-party vote there moved one tick up to 52.1%. Otherwise, the swing state list showed little change:

My model shows no change in either the national vote share or in the Electoral College vote totals. One gets the feeling that this race is settling in and we may see little significant movement until after the first debate on September 26th in Oxford, Mississippi.

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