Saturday, September 20, 2008

Lots of Polls . . . .

But no movement. A total of nine state polls and four national tracking polls produced no meaningful net movement in my model meaning that the two candidates remain virtually tied in the popular vote and separated by 10 votes in the Electoral College. Below is the current electoral map according to my model:

To give a bit more flavor of the race's dynamics I have colored those states where the leading candidate has no more than 52% share of the two party vote has been colored pink and light blue for McCain and Obama respectively:

The two closest states are Ohio and Missouri, either of which would tip the election in Obama's favor were they to switch to Obama.

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