For the returns, er, polls to come in. The size of the Republican post-convention bounce should become apparent over the next several days after which the shape of the election heading into the stretch run should become clearer. The movement towards McCain over the past several days seems fairly slight as my model suggests that Obama continues to hold on to a slender, but definitive, lead:
The Electoral College vote totals remain unchanged as before at 304-234 in favor of Obama. Most of the razor-tight swing states narrowed slightly over the past 24 hours:
Expect some significant changes in the above figures and the electoral map over the next five to seven days. Except for the final days of the campaign, the next period will likely be the most important of the campaign.