The updated Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls for August 30th showed no change in Obama's lead over McCain (at eight and four percentage points respectively). Because these polls were taken the day after Barack Obama's acceptance speech, one may conclude that Obama received no bounce from his well-received speech. Since the morning of August 30th was when Sarah Palin was named as McCain's running mate, one may also conclude the polling results suggest that McCain successfully stole Obama's thunder and counteracted the positive impact of Obama's speech. Further movement in these tracking polls towards McCain over the next several days would suggest the positive impact of Palin on McCain's fortunes.
My own model showed no change from the previous day. Obama's lead remains at 50.9% to 49.1% and his Electoral College vote margin remains at 304-234.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
A Bit More Bounce for Obama
Barack Obama continued to gain momentum according to the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls released on Friday and based on polling performed through the Thursday the 28th. The Gallup polls gives Obama an eight percentage point lead while the Rasmussen poll gives him a four percentage point lead. Imputting the result of these polls into my model produces a 1.8 percentage point lead for Obama, a one-day 1.4 percentage point swing:
This shift at the national level was enough to move Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, and Colorado, with nine votes, into the Democratic column. As a result, Obama now has a 34 vote cushion in the Electoral College:
The electoral map now looks like this:
This shift at the national level was enough to move Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, and Colorado, with nine votes, into the Democratic column. As a result, Obama now has a 34 vote cushion in the Electoral College:
The electoral map now looks like this:
John McCain Will Win
John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was absolutely brilliant and, more likely than not, will deliver him the U.S. presidency in two months (and change) time. Here's why:
1. The boldness of the selection completely took the spotlight away from Barack Obama's acceptance speech and blunted its eventual impact.
2. By selecting a woman, McCain highlighted the fact that Obama passed over Hillary Clinton for an old white guy without seriously considering her. Had Obama selected Clinton, McCain would have gained little from selecting someone like Palin.
3. Because Palin is an evangelical Christian and stridently anti-abortion, McCain's pick will energize social conservatives who have thus far been sitting on the sidelines.
4. Palin successfully fought deeply entrenched political corruption in her own party. That suggests she's a tough woman and will be able to handle the pressure that will be thrown at her. She is being underestimated by the Democrats.
5. McCain's selection highlights the fact that he is the bold candidate in this election. Obama has in fact been revealed, by his selection of Biden, to be cautious and conservative.
The reaction of Democrats to McCain's pick is predictable; afterall, that's what they get paid to do and say. But if she turns out to be what McCain obviously thinks she is capable of, then that talk will be quieted.
Personally, McCain's pick of Palin probably seals the deal for me. I'm probably going to cast my vote for Obama-Biden in my home state of Pennsylvania. But I think the Democrats are, by foolishly selecting Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton and then by Obama foolishly deciding to pass over Clinton for Joe Biden, now at serious risk of losing an election that should have been their's almost by default.
1. The boldness of the selection completely took the spotlight away from Barack Obama's acceptance speech and blunted its eventual impact.
2. By selecting a woman, McCain highlighted the fact that Obama passed over Hillary Clinton for an old white guy without seriously considering her. Had Obama selected Clinton, McCain would have gained little from selecting someone like Palin.
3. Because Palin is an evangelical Christian and stridently anti-abortion, McCain's pick will energize social conservatives who have thus far been sitting on the sidelines.
4. Palin successfully fought deeply entrenched political corruption in her own party. That suggests she's a tough woman and will be able to handle the pressure that will be thrown at her. She is being underestimated by the Democrats.
5. McCain's selection highlights the fact that he is the bold candidate in this election. Obama has in fact been revealed, by his selection of Biden, to be cautious and conservative.
The reaction of Democrats to McCain's pick is predictable; afterall, that's what they get paid to do and say. But if she turns out to be what McCain obviously thinks she is capable of, then that talk will be quieted.
Personally, McCain's pick of Palin probably seals the deal for me. I'm probably going to cast my vote for Obama-Biden in my home state of Pennsylvania. But I think the Democrats are, by foolishly selecting Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton and then by Obama foolishly deciding to pass over Clinton for Joe Biden, now at serious risk of losing an election that should have been their's almost by default.
Friday, August 29, 2008
A Barack Bounce
Finally, the polls have indicated the beginning of a bounce towards Barack Obama. The Wednesday tracking polling done by Gallup indicated a substantial one-day six percentage point lurch towards Obama. However, in sharp contrast, the Rasmussen tracking poll actually shifted one percentage point towards McCain on the same day. This just shows you how volatile polling can be. The best way to deal with this variation across polls is to average the results. When we do this and crunch the numbers through the model, we come up with a 0.5 percentage point shift towards Obama during the previous 24 hours:
The shift back over to Obama in the popular vote has also put him back on top in the Electoral College:
Obama's Electoral College vote lead is, of course, fragile since it is based on extremely slender margins in New Mexico and New Hampshire. The updated electoral map is shown below:
McCain's lead in Ohio appears to be extremely slender and his lead in Colorado is only slightly less fragile. My expection is that Obama's lead will jump in response to his well-received acceptance speech on Thursday evening. We should see that effect in the polls in two days time.
The shift back over to Obama in the popular vote has also put him back on top in the Electoral College:
Obama's Electoral College vote lead is, of course, fragile since it is based on extremely slender margins in New Mexico and New Hampshire. The updated electoral map is shown below:
McCain's lead in Ohio appears to be extremely slender and his lead in Colorado is only slightly less fragile. My expection is that Obama's lead will jump in response to his well-received acceptance speech on Thursday evening. We should see that effect in the polls in two days time.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
A Day Two Bounce
Barack Obama experienced a bit of a bounce in the polls during the Day Two polling as both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls moved one percentage point in Obama's direction. As I discussed in yesterday's post (as noted by Nate Silver of the blog 538.com), today's tracking polls likely reflected the impact of Day One of the convention. Five state polls also released yesterday also suggested a movement in Obama's direction, although the results in several states, including Now Mexico and Nevada, suggested a leap towards Obama that seems more than a bit questionable.
The results moved my own model a tick in Obama's direction, however, McCain remains on top according to the model by a 50.3%-49.7% margin. The Electoral College margin remains unchanged at 272-266 in McCain's favor. As has been the case over the past week or so, New Mexico and New Hampshire remain the most pivotable of the swing states in this election. Given that Obama was officially nominated today and gives his acceptance speech in the evening in the states, we should see some definite movement towards Obama in these polls over the next 48 hours.
The window of opportunity for Obama is narrow because John McCain will likely be naming his running mate on Friday. After that, the Republicans begin their convention in St. Paul, Minnesota early next week meaning that all of the attention will be on the Republicans shortly after the crowd files out of Mile High Stadium Thursday evening. Barack Obama will need to wow America this evening and convince them that he is a risk worth taking on.
The results moved my own model a tick in Obama's direction, however, McCain remains on top according to the model by a 50.3%-49.7% margin. The Electoral College margin remains unchanged at 272-266 in McCain's favor. As has been the case over the past week or so, New Mexico and New Hampshire remain the most pivotable of the swing states in this election. Given that Obama was officially nominated today and gives his acceptance speech in the evening in the states, we should see some definite movement towards Obama in these polls over the next 48 hours.
The window of opportunity for Obama is narrow because John McCain will likely be naming his running mate on Friday. After that, the Republicans begin their convention in St. Paul, Minnesota early next week meaning that all of the attention will be on the Republicans shortly after the crowd files out of Mile High Stadium Thursday evening. Barack Obama will need to wow America this evening and convince them that he is a risk worth taking on.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
The Biden Bounce . . .
appears to be somewhat underwhelming if two tracking polls from respected polling organizations (Gallup and Rasmussen) released over the past 24 hours are to be believed. In fact, feeding the results from these polls into my model suggests that McCain now has a modest popular vote lead over Obama of about 0.6 percentage points:
As Nate Silver noted in the election blog 538, these two tracking polls finished their polling prior to the Monday evening speeches at the Democratic convention, so this movement should have nothing to do with the convention itself yet. But, as he notes, these polls should be showing the first reaction to the naming of Biden as Obama's running mate. It's not pretty so far, but this may be early and transitory.
McCain's lead translates into a narrow lead in the Electoral College according to my model:
The resulting current state-level map is shown below:
New Mexico and New Hampshire have gone red according to the model. My model also shows that Missouri is getting uncomfortably close and that Obama's lead in Iowa may be under 2 percentage points.
National Popular Vote Breakdown
As Nate Silver noted in the election blog 538, these two tracking polls finished their polling prior to the Monday evening speeches at the Democratic convention, so this movement should have nothing to do with the convention itself yet. But, as he notes, these polls should be showing the first reaction to the naming of Biden as Obama's running mate. It's not pretty so far, but this may be early and transitory.McCain's lead translates into a narrow lead in the Electoral College according to my model:
Electoral College Vote Breakdown
The resulting current state-level map is shown below:Current Electoral Map
New Mexico and New Hampshire have gone red according to the model. My model also shows that Missouri is getting uncomfortably close and that Obama's lead in Iowa may be under 2 percentage points.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Demo Convention Day One . . .
. . . . and no significant change yet in the numbers. The Rasmussen moving average tracking poll has shown a slight shift towards Obama the last two days (one percentage point a day) while the Gallup tracking poll has shown no movement whatsoever. The conclusion is that there is no clear budging from the 50%-50% point we have been stuck in for most of the past week. My model shows Obama with a 13,000 vote lead nationally out of an estimated 125 million voters right now. The coverage from the convention seems to be painting a positive picture of the goings on and the Clinton's appear to be cooperative at Obama's big party. Now we'll see if the numbers begin to move, as they really should.
Sitting here waiting for things to get unstuck . . .
Sitting here waiting for things to get unstuck . . .
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