Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The Biden Bounce . . .

appears to be somewhat underwhelming if two tracking polls from respected polling organizations (Gallup and Rasmussen) released over the past 24 hours are to be believed. In fact, feeding the results from these polls into my model suggests that McCain now has a modest popular vote lead over Obama of about 0.6 percentage points:

National Popular Vote Breakdown
As Nate Silver noted in the election blog 538, these two tracking polls finished their polling prior to the Monday evening speeches at the Democratic convention, so this movement should have nothing to do with the convention itself yet. But, as he notes, these polls should be showing the first reaction to the naming of Biden as Obama's running mate. It's not pretty so far, but this may be early and transitory.

McCain's lead translates into a narrow lead in the Electoral College according to my model:

Electoral College Vote Breakdown
The resulting current state-level map is shown below:

Current Electoral Map
New Mexico and New Hampshire have gone red according to the model. My model also shows that Missouri is getting uncomfortably close and that Obama's lead in Iowa may be under 2 percentage points.

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