National Popular Vote BreakdownAs Nate Silver noted in the election blog 538, these two tracking polls finished their polling prior to the Monday evening speeches at the Democratic convention, so this movement should have nothing to do with the convention itself yet. But, as he notes, these polls should be showing the first reaction to the naming of Biden as Obama's running mate. It's not pretty so far, but this may be early and transitory.
McCain's lead translates into a narrow lead in the Electoral College according to my model:
Electoral College Vote BreakdownThe resulting current state-level map is shown below:
Current Electoral MapNew Mexico and New Hampshire have gone red according to the model. My model also shows that Missouri is getting uncomfortably close and that Obama's lead in Iowa may be under 2 percentage points.