Saturday, August 30, 2008

A Bit More Bounce for Obama

Barack Obama continued to gain momentum according to the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls released on Friday and based on polling performed through the Thursday the 28th. The Gallup polls gives Obama an eight percentage point lead while the Rasmussen poll gives him a four percentage point lead. Imputting the result of these polls into my model produces a 1.8 percentage point lead for Obama, a one-day 1.4 percentage point swing:

This shift at the national level was enough to move Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, and Colorado, with nine votes, into the Democratic column. As a result, Obama now has a 34 vote cushion in the Electoral College:

The electoral map now looks like this:

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