Thursday, August 28, 2008

A Day Two Bounce

Barack Obama experienced a bit of a bounce in the polls during the Day Two polling as both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls moved one percentage point in Obama's direction. As I discussed in yesterday's post (as noted by Nate Silver of the blog, today's tracking polls likely reflected the impact of Day One of the convention. Five state polls also released yesterday also suggested a movement in Obama's direction, although the results in several states, including Now Mexico and Nevada, suggested a leap towards Obama that seems more than a bit questionable.

The results moved my own model a tick in Obama's direction, however, McCain remains on top according to the model by a 50.3%-49.7% margin. The Electoral College margin remains unchanged at 272-266 in McCain's favor. As has been the case over the past week or so, New Mexico and New Hampshire remain the most pivotable of the swing states in this election. Given that Obama was officially nominated today and gives his acceptance speech in the evening in the states, we should see some definite movement towards Obama in these polls over the next 48 hours.

The window of opportunity for Obama is narrow because John McCain will likely be naming his running mate on Friday. After that, the Republicans begin their convention in St. Paul, Minnesota early next week meaning that all of the attention will be on the Republicans shortly after the crowd files out of Mile High Stadium Thursday evening. Barack Obama will need to wow America this evening and convince them that he is a risk worth taking on.

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