Presidential Election Standings August 18th

Since no new polls were released during the past 24 hours, there's nothing new to update at the national level. I will take the opportunity however to note the current standings between Obama and McCain in the swing state of Missouri:

Missouri Two Party Vote Share

Obama has a 2.6 percentage point lead in Missouri according to my model. This does contrast with most polling which suggests McCain has anywhere from a 1 to 6 point lead in the state. If these polls are correct, then Obama is running behind where he should be in Missouri based on polling in bellweather states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oregon. And, if that is the case, then Senator Obama has a problem.