Friday, August 22, 2008

Obama Gets a Breather

John McCain's recent "surge" that put has him within whispering distance of Barack Obama has apparently crested over the past 24 hours as Obama's popular vote lead has increased (according to my model) from 0.8 percentage points to 1.0 percentage points:

National TwoParty Popular Vote Shares
It will be interesting to see how McCain's "House-gate" statement plays out with the general public. Obama is attempting to take advantage of what he perceives to be a significant gaffle clearly hoping to add to his expected convention bounce next week. We should get Obama's vice-presidential nominee within the next 12 to 24 hours, and the polling should begin to reflect the effect of that choice (if any) over the next several days.

As has been the case for some time, the popular vote movement has done nothing to change the Electoral College vote standings that have been in place for some time. Obama continues to lead in the Electoral College by 295 to 243 votes.

Moving on to actual states where the election will really take place, a poll released yesterday by Rasmussen gave Obama a four percentage point lead in the swing state of New Mexico. My own model suggests that Obama's current lead in the state is 1.0 percentage points:

New Mexico Vote Shares and Popular Vote Margin

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