Saturday, August 23, 2008

No Room For Error - The Presidential Race on August 23rd

Another batch of polls over the past 24 hours show a renewed tightening of the presidential sweepstakes. Basically, it can hardly get tighter than this:

National Two Party Vote Shares
I estimate that Barack Obama's lead in the popular vote, were the election to be held today, at only about 250,000 votes out of a likely 125,000,000 to be cast for the two main presidential candidates. The tightening national vote appears to have moved Ohio into McCain's column:

Ohio Vote Shares
The flipping of Ohio from Barach Obama to John McCain has reduced Obama's Electoral College vote margin to only 12 electoral votes:

Electoral College Votes
The electoral map now looks like this:

It's too early to tell how the (apparent as of this moment) selection of Joe Biden to be Obama's Vice Presidential nominee will impact the presidential vote but I would anticipate that we are going to have a good deal of movement between now and the end of the Democratic convention late next week. That movement should be back towards Obama as he dominates the national stage during the Democratic convention and more of the electorate begins to pay closer attention to the election campaign.

No comments: