Presidential Election Standings August 17th

Based on my model for each of the 50 U.S. states and D.C., Obama currently leads McCain in the overall popular vote by 2.6 percentage points:

Two Party Popular Vote Share

Obama's lead in the Electoral College is somewhat more substantial:

Electoral College Vote Totals

Seven states appear to be crucial swing states that will decide the election if it remains close on election day. These include Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. Colorado, with 9 electoral votes, appears at present to be in McCain's column. I estimate his current lead in Colorado at 2.6 percentage points:

Colorado Vote Share

The map below shows the current electoral map as of today based on my model: