Thursday, August 21, 2008

It's Tied (More or Less)

Another day, another set of polls and yet more momentum towards John McCain. My models suggest that McCain slashed the gap between he and Barack Obama by 0.8 percentage points:

National Two Party Popular Vote Shares
The Democratic convention in Denver won't come a day too soon. While the Electoral College vote breakdown remains unchanged (at 295 for Obama and 243 for McCain) a sliver more movement towards McCain will put Ohio in his camp:

Ohio - McCain vs. Obama
The model sugggests that Obama's lead in Ohio is currently less than 25,000 votes. New Hampshire and New Mexico are also razor close with about 1 percentage point separating Obama from McCain. Both of these states would need to shift to McCain before he would take over the lead in the Electoral College.

While those states with the close contests usually get all the attention, I thought it would be interesting to show how the election is shaping up in those states somewhat less competitive. The most lopsided Republican state appears, once again, to be Utah where McCain's lead is nearly 2 to 1 over Obama:

Utah Two Party Vote Shares
If McCain names Mitt Romney as his running mate, he can count on piling perhaps another 5 percentage points or so on to his total in this competitive and vitally important state. Any bets?

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