Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The Race Narrows Slightly

A slew of polls, two national and five state, were released today. The state polls included Georgia, Ohio, New York, Illinois and Tennessee only one of which, Ohio, is a swing state. Since it had been more than a month since polls were released in Illinois and Tennessee, the addition of these polls makes the overall results just a bit more robust. I am now working on introducing the results of the national level polls into the model. The results so far suggest that the state level models are quite robust; introducing the national level polls into the model will enable the model to adjust more quickly to significant short-term movements in sentiment at the national level. The model suggests that the race between McCain and Obama tightened fractionally over the past 24 hours:

National Popular Vote Shares
Obama's lead now stands at 2.4 percentage points. The Electoral College vote breakdown remains unchanged with Obama holding on to a 25 vote cushion over the 270 votes required for victory:

Electoral College Standings
In our continuing series on the seven swing states in this election, we look today at the race in Nevada. The state has five electoral votes in the Electoral College. My model suggests that McCain is leading this traditionally Republican leaning western state by a 3.6 percentage point margin.

Swing States - Nevada

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