This post is the sixth in a series of posts on a "bet" made by Tamino in January of this year. Tamino's position is that the trend of increasing average temperatures at the earth's surface will continue into the forseeable future. In order to test his assertion that global temperatures would continue to increase between now and 2015 in line with the 1975 to 2007 trend he has set conditions for each year between now and 2015 to confirm or deny the assertion. The conditions of the bet for the year 2008 are as follows:
1. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, equals or exceeds .7350 degrees Celsius, the "still-warming" side will receive one point.
2. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, is less than or equal to .4035 degrees Celsius, the "not-warming" side will receive one point.
3. If the average global temperature anomaly, as measured by NASA GISS, falls between these two figures, both sides will receive zero points in 2008.
Although the GISS global temperature anomaly was .51 degrees in July, the average NASA GISS global temperature anomaly for 2008 through July was .3686 degrees Celsius or .0349 degrees Celsius below the Tamino threshold for the "not-warming" side to receive one point in 2008. In order for the "not-warming" side to win a point in 2008, the average anomaly for the reminder of the year would need to be below .4524 degrees. My own forecast for the remainder of the year is for the global temperature anomaly to average .5837 degrees. Thus, I don't expect that the "not-warming" side will win the point in 2008. However, things are getting very, very interesting with this bet.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Thank you for doing this analysis. Incidentally have you noticed that Tamino has made an alteration to his original "bet"? In the update (made in July) to his original post he says
"In this post I made a simple error in the statement of the bet: rather than give the equation of the lower dashed red line, I gave the equation for the trend line itself. The constant was given as 0.277455, when it should have been 0.085655. This has been corrected.
The “critical value” is therefore 0.085655 + 0.018173(t-1991) , where t is the year, and for 2008 this turns out to be 0.3946.
The average so far this year (through June 2008) is 0.3433. Hence the remainder of the year must average at least 0.4459 for the year as a whole to meet or exceed the critical value"(end quote)
His figure of 0.394596 is a little lower than your 0.4035, so I wonder who is right.
Post a Comment