Wednesday, October 29, 2008

A Bit Tighter and Inner West Overview

[Edit: The written material here was added later in the day]

John McCain has trimmed another 0.2 percentage points off of Barack Obama's popular vote lead, which now stands at 5.6 percentage points according to my model:

There is no change in the electoral vote breakdown compared with the previous day:

The current electoral map remains unchanged from the previous day:

Among the swing states, McCain has made solid gains in Colorado over the past 24 hours and he has narrowed Obama's lead in Nevade to 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, Florida has seen little change since yesterday:

Among the bellwether states, while McCain made some headway in Missouri over the past 24 hours, reducing Obama's lead there by 0.8 percentage points, there was virtually no change in the Ohio figures:

Our regional series moves west to what I call the Inner West states which include Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah. I have some familarity with this region as I lived for a time in Idaho when I was young.

This mountainous, sparsely populated part of the US is conservative and throughly rock-ribbed Republican and it is easy to imagine that these states have been Republican forever. In fact, Idaho voted for the Populist candidate in 1892 (when Idaho and Wyoming joined the Union) and all three Lower 48 states voted for the populist Democrat Bryan in 1896 (when Utah became a state). In the 14 presidential elections between 1896 and 1948, Idaho voted Democratic nine times while Wyoming and Utah each voted Democratic seven times. The region began to trend Republican beginning with the 1952 presidential election and, with the exception of the pivotal election of 1964, the region has voted as a Republican bloc in every election (Alaska joined the Union in 1960). This election will be no exception:

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