Sunday, October 5, 2008

Drip, Drip

John McCain's chances of winning the election are slowing dripping away - drop by drop, day by day. The latest national tracking polls suggest that Barack Obama is now nearing the 52% mark and the point at which he stands a good chance to earn a substantial victory in the Electoral College. My model suggests that Obama now has 51.9% of the two party popular vote:

Obama's electoral vote margin remains unchanged at 317-221. However, McCain is hanging on by surface tension in Nevada and his lead in Florida is just a tad over 100,000 votes:

The electoral map shows that New Hampshire has turned dark blue during the last several days. However, Missouri and Ohio are two ticks away from turning dark blue as well:

The polling over the next 24 hours should tell us whether Sarah Palin's generally well-received performance in the vice presidential debate with Joe Biden will help to stem the flow towards Obama. My guess is that we are now at Obama's short-term high water mark and that the next few days will see some modest movement towards McCain.

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