Tuesday, October 14, 2008

A Ray of Hope

For those wishing for something other than a boring coronation of Barack Obama on November 4th, the latest polls suggest that Obama's lead over John McCain has tightened several ticks:

As a result, McCain's lead in Florida has lengthened to about 45,000 votes:


Given McCain's Florida lead, it is reasonable to say that Florida has become comfortably pink (for the time being anyway):

4 comments:

Brian said...

As I read this, I am shocked about how this electoral map is. Yes I am a supporter of McCain, but still, this map you have is WAY off!

1) McCain will win Florida. He has a underlying support there with senior citizens, evangelical Christians, and a good size of Hispanics. Republicans have been gaining Hispanic voters since 2000.

2) West Virginia is very, very heavily Republican. Don't know why you have it as a mix when this state has gone Republican for the last 30 years.

3) I can see why Obama can win Ohio and I am predicting that he will. Just don't give up on it being really close and swinging Republican.

4) Maine has four electoral votes and actually divides them base on popular vote. Obama will not win all of these votes. As from Maine, we have two moderate Republican senators and two moderate Democrat Representatives. McCain will win this state as Bush did in 2000 and 2004.

Nathan Paine said...

Hi John,

Thanks for keeping up the good work. Perhaps you could include the latest electoral estimate in addition to the popular vote when you post?

Cheers, Nathan

John Tofflemire said...

Nathan,

I appreciate your support.

The electoral estimate did not change and remained the same at 322-216. My apolgies for not mentioning that in the post.

Cheers,

John

John Tofflemire said...

Brian,

I agree that McCain should win Florida, assuming that Obama doesn't increase his share of the national vote further.

The close race in West Virginia is based on a American Research Group poll released several days ago which gave Obama an 8 point lead in the state. I was very skeptical of this poll when it came out. Fortunately, my model is based not only on polling within the state but also on national polls as well as polling in other states. I expect a more accurate poll in the state to come out over the next few days and, when it does, I would anticipate that West Virginia will move into the save Republican column.

In Ohio, my model has Obama up by 52.4% to 47.6% as of today. The election would need to be razor close for McCain to carry Ohio.

As for Maine, I disagree with you. Maine does allocate its electoral votes based both on the statewide vote and on the vote in each of its two congressional districts. The northern district (CD 2) is more Republican than is the more urban (Portland) southern district. The 2nd District was somewhat close in 2004, but was ultimately carried by Kerry. Note this time unless there is a dramatic change between now and election day.