Friday, October 10, 2008

Stability (of a Sort)

Things finally seemed to have calmed down in the U.S. presidential election over the past several days, if polls released during the last 48 hours are to be believed. Sure, Barack Obama has inched up yet one more tick at the national level according to my model:

But McCain seems to have gained a tick or two in several swing states in spite of further gains by Obama at the national level:

Note that West Virginia is now in the swing state column. The addition of West Virginia to this exclusive club is due to a single poll put out over the past 24 hours giving Obama a wide lead in the state. I personally think that this is unlikely to be the case but one does need to give some consideration to this poll and so, West Virginia is now in the swing state column. The reader may also note that North Carolina is now off the list. The reason is that I've removed all polls taken by organizations affiliated with a political party. Polls by a Democratic party affiliated organization appear to be biased and this bias was having a particularly strong effect in North Carolina. As a result, the map below shows the revised electoral map:

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