Saturday, October 18, 2008

Florida Tightens

Two polls released today suggest a tightening race in Florida. A Survey USA poll of 553 likely voters gives John McCain a 49% to 47% lead over Barack Obama in the state while a Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters gives Obama a 49%-45% lead over McCain in Florida. Grinding the results of these polls (as well as the updated daily national tracking polls) into my model results in a 0.8 percentage point lead for Obama in Florida:

McCain has also narrowed Obama's lead very slightly in Nevada while there appears to have been little change in North Carolina over the past 24 hours. McCain has also modestly extended his leads in the gang of four states where Obama has been recently threatening:

There was little overall movement nationally as the popular vote shares and the electoral votes remained unchanged:

The current national electoral map remains unchanged as well:

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