Thursday, October 2, 2008

Pulling Away

[Note: The electoral vote figure for McCain below has been corrected from 222 to 221.]

Which is what Barach Obama is doing right now. The polls suggest that Obama's lead has lengthened over the past 48 hours. This movement represents both the full effect of the first debate as well as the public's negative reaction towards the $700 billion financial industry bailout proposal. The victims of this negative reaction appear to be Republicans in general and their own General McCain in particular. This may or may not be fair, but fairness is a virtue never in over supply during presidential election camapigns.

My own model suggests that Obama's lead is now 3.4 percentage points:

The national polls suggest that Obama's lead is about 5.5 percentage points while state polls are in general showing a somewhat tighter race. The state polls are however beginning to reflect the national trends and so my model may well continue to trend in the direction of Obama over the next several days.

In spite of the continued shift towards Obama, the Electoral College vote totals have shown no change over the past 48 hours. Obama continues to maintain a 317-221 vote lead over McCain in the College. While there has been no further electoral vote shift, McCain's lead in Florida and Nevada continue to diminish:

The clock may be beginning to run out on John McCain in this election. He probably has a week or so to begin shifting the undecideds back in his direction.

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