It was a light polling day made even lighter from my perspective since the number of polls I am using in the model has been dramatically reduced from before. There's a bit more movement towards Barack Obama over the past 24 hours:
This movement is enough to put Florida (back) in the Democratic column. As a result, Obama has stretched his lead over John McCain in the Electoral College to 349-189:
Not only has Florida switched to light blue, Indiana has gone pink:
Indiana is under threat for the first time in the campaign. The numbers for the three swing states are as follows:
The bellwether states of Missouri and Ohio have slipped a further notch into the Obama camp:
Our regional focus shifts to Florida, a unique state that really doesn't fit comfortably into any other region in the country.
Massive in-migration over the past five decades from the industrial midwest, the northeast and Latin America has produced a complex mosaic of influences and cultures unlike any other in the US. The northern panhandle section of the state, which has seen less in-migration from the north, still retains its Deep South character. In contrast, the Gulf of Mexico western side has seen a significant in-migration from the Great Lakes states which gives this part of the state a more moderate flavor. Meanwhile, the Atlantic eastern side of the state has seen large-scale in-migration from the northeast (particularly from the New York City metropolitan region) and from throughout Latin America, especially from nearby Cuba. Most of the Cuban immigrants are refugees from Castro's regime and have largely supported the more anti-communist Republican presidential candidates. As a result, Florida trends very slightly Republican in presidential elections. The same appears to be the case in this election, however, the national level support for Barack Obama may be enough to give him the state's 27 electoral votes.