Monday, October 13, 2008

High Water?

The latest polls have detected something not observed for some time - movement back towards John McCain. The movement is not much (0.1 percentage points) but it is enough to flip Florida right back into the McCain camp and the overall election back into respectable territory for McCain.

Given this flip back and forth over the past two days, it may be more reasonable to put Florida in the grey "toss-up" category until the situation there settles down. We hope the good citizens of the state won't mind too much:

As the table belows shows, McCain's lead in Florida is only about 9,000 votes according to my model:

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